FluTE, a Publicly Available Stochastic Influenza Epidemic Simulation Model
Identifieur interne : 000083 ( 1957/Analysis ); précédent : 000082; suivant : 000084FluTE, a Publicly Available Stochastic Influenza Epidemic Simulation Model
Auteurs : Dennis L. Chao [États-Unis] ; M. Elizabeth Halloran [États-Unis] ; Valerie J. Obenchain [États-Unis] ; Ira M. Longini [États-Unis]Source :
- PLoS Computational Biology [ 1553-734X ] ; 2010.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- Wicri :
- geographic : États-Unis.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic : United States.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Computer Simulation, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Models, Biological, Prevalence, Software, Stochastic Processes.
Abstract
Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza. The model has been calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2) and 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza viruses. We present examples of how this model can be used to study the dynamics of influenza epidemics in the United States and simulate how to mitigate or delay them using pharmaceutical interventions and social distancing measures. Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000656
PubMed: 20126529
PubMed Central: 2813259
Affiliations:
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PMC:2813259Le document en format XML
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To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza. The model has been calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2) and 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza viruses. We present examples of how this model can be used to study the dynamics of influenza epidemics in the United States and simulate how to mitigate or delay them using pharmaceutical interventions and social distancing measures. Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ross, R" uniqKey="Ross R">R Ross</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Elveback, L" uniqKey="Elveback L">L Elveback</name></author><author><name sortKey="Varma, A" uniqKey="Varma A">A Varma</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Halloran, Me" uniqKey="Halloran M">ME Halloran</name></author><author><name sortKey="Longini, Im" uniqKey="Longini I">IM Longini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nizam, A" uniqKey="Nizam A">A Nizam</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Y" uniqKey="Yang Y">Y Yang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Eubank, S" uniqKey="Eubank S">S Eubank</name></author><author><name sortKey="Guclu, H" uniqKey="Guclu H">H 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Jain</name></author><author><name sortKey="Finelli, L" uniqKey="Finelli L">L Finelli</name></author><author><name sortKey="Shaw, Mw" uniqKey="Shaw M">MW Shaw</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lindstrom, S" uniqKey="Lindstrom S">S Lindstrom</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Boelle, Py" uniqKey="Boelle P">PY Boëlle</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bernillon, P" uniqKey="Bernillon P">P Bernillon</name></author><author><name sortKey="Desenclos, Jc" uniqKey="Desenclos J">JC Desenclos</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H Nishiura</name></author><author><name sortKey="Castillo Chavez, C" uniqKey="Castillo Chavez C">C Castillo-Chavez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Safan, M" uniqKey="Safan M">M Safan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G 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Ferguson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Keeling, Mj" uniqKey="Keeling M">MJ Keeling</name></author><author><name sortKey="Edmunds, Wj" uniqKey="Edmunds W">WJ Edmunds</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gani, R" uniqKey="Gani R">R Gani</name></author><author><name sortKey="Grenfell, Bt" uniqKey="Grenfell B">BT Grenfell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Longini, Im" uniqKey="Longini I">IM Longini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Halloran, Me" uniqKey="Halloran M">ME Halloran</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nizam, A" uniqKey="Nizam A">A Nizam</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Y" uniqKey="Yang Y">Y Yang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, S" uniqKey="Xu S">S Xu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Longini, Im" uniqKey="Longini I">IM Longini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ackerman, E" uniqKey="Ackerman E">E Ackerman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Elveback, Lr" uniqKey="Elveback L">LR Elveback</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Washington (État)</li></region><settlement><li>Seattle</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de Washington</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Washington (État)"><name sortKey="Chao, Dennis L" sort="Chao, Dennis L" uniqKey="Chao D" first="Dennis L." last="Chao">Dennis L. Chao</name></region><name sortKey="Halloran, M Elizabeth" sort="Halloran, M Elizabeth" uniqKey="Halloran M" first="M. Elizabeth" last="Halloran">M. Elizabeth Halloran</name><name sortKey="Halloran, M Elizabeth" sort="Halloran, M Elizabeth" uniqKey="Halloran M" first="M. Elizabeth" last="Halloran">M. Elizabeth Halloran</name><name sortKey="Longini, Ira M" sort="Longini, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini I" first="Ira M." last="Longini">Ira M. Longini</name><name sortKey="Obenchain, Valerie J" sort="Obenchain, Valerie J" uniqKey="Obenchain V" first="Valerie J." last="Obenchain">Valerie J. Obenchain</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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|flux= 1957
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